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Dive Bar Pub Crawl 2018 - First six stops

I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk.
The legal cannabis industry already has a ton of risk in it - but this stuff - is only for thrill seekers. All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell.
I've limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept to most recent financial statements and MD&A's. You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I see in their latest financial statements.
I haven't been consistent in following them all over the past year: some I have, others not.
Ah, it's that time of the year again.
The smell of chestnuts roasting....the sights of snack tables filled with shortbread & egg nog....of lights and decorations and presents....and that time when the elves revisit the route on their 2017 Dive Bar Pub Crawl.
Some of the share prices have been up and down faster than a toddler's mood. Let's take a look, and see who has been 'naughty' or 'nice'.
MPX - MPX Bioceutical
Price then: $0.40 - Price Now: $0.87
Recently, I toured their Nevada facility, and wrote their financials up here, and you can find the grow op writeup here. Gonna cheat a little this year, and refer to that.
KALY - Kalytera Therapeutics, Inc.
Price then: $0.29 - Price Now: $0.065
Ugh. Just ugh. As I said last year, pharma is outside of my wheelhouse, as does financials related to them. Anyhow, I still think the financials suck.
GLH - Golden Leaf Holdings
Price then: $0.28 - Price Now: $0.13
While searching for a reason for the merger cancellation, I came across a Terra Tech comedy sketch. Sadly, there is not even a mention of the merger 'oopsy' on their website. Seriously, if space becomes available in the Crawl, Terra Tech is first in line.
As for GLH....well....caveat your fucking emptor. Eye bleach is/was too gentle a term for this outfit's fins.
THC Biomed
Price then: $0.80 - Price Now: $0.32
Through disclosure, we know that they pay $25 an hour, a $500 xmas bonus, and 250,000 stock options. Which is pretty good. Qualification is that you have to be a close family member of the CEO, and buy $1,400 in product.
Well, there's many different fish in the sea. But I do suspect that this isn't a fish, it's just a sea slug.
EAT (Nutritional High)
Price then: $0.22 - Price Now: $0.18
Ok. They have stuff littered everywhere, and it doesn't look like any of it is worth anything. Oh, wait, that's what I said last year.
Realistically, to get a good handle on this thing, one would need an Act of God. I waited for a little while, but it didn't happen. On to.....
RVV - Revive Therapeutics
Price then: $0.30 - Price Now: $0.09
Heavy in options, some design around clinical trials. Nothing much else stands out. Again, pharma and value hunting in research ain't something I know much about. The entire assumption in here is that they'll actually put out someday, or get taken out by a larger fish (hopefully for more than the $10MM they've dumped into it). Anyone investing in stuff this downrange, better have your scope sighted in.
Or perhaps you know that the FDA's granting of orphan drug status for CBD in the prevention of ischemia and reperfusion injury resulting from solid organ transplantation is just the shot in the arm this company needed. If you do, please keep it to yourself.
submitted by mollytime to TheCannalysts [link] [comments]

Dive Bar Tuesdays - Sunniva 01/18

Seeing the mentions and feel good messaging coming out about this operation lately piqued my curiosity. Normally, I don’t follow companies that spend on self-promotion around stock price, but one of our mods asked for this, and I wanted to see if there is visible cracks between messaging and reality.
There are several, as this outfit has delayed operational announcements, and executed a sale/leaseback to free up cashflow.
All in all, it has the feel of a business in build out, and being somewhat behind the capital train’s lead car. Coinciding with the expanded messaging about the company, they’ve just come to market this morning looking for $10MM to provide working capital until expected revenues materialize. 25% of the total amount is being picked up by management. Coincidental?
I’m neither ‘fur or ‘agin’ this outfit. Their SBC/G&A is very high for what they’ve achieved, and they’re putting much risk into the California rollout. Looking at their cash and leverage, it puts a lot onto making a splash right away.
They’ve put sales numbers to the LTYR potential. With a payback period I eyeball at 3-4yrs. Under their projections, it suggests the buy was good. Tough thing is, it’s all promise. The share price decline they’ve had (and shared with many others) over the past year has stressed access to capital, and much is riding on this distribution deal.
The related party transactions are somewhat concerning to me. They’ve made money across management in real estate transactions, construction contracts, legal fees, and consulting gigs. The reader should note this isn’t nefarious on its’ face - it’s not uncommon to have a tight mgmt team rely on each other’s competencies during build, but the intensity is somewhat high (Note 15).
For in-sector risk, this one seems to have a lot riding going into a competitive, mature market. Discounts sought by retail for wholesale product a definite threat to margins, and a rough couple of quarters (or slowed realization) of sales expansion will stress cashflow.
All I see here is promises, some revenue, & expensive in-house resourcing. I am not close enough (or knowledgeable) about the company and it’s products and the market with which it is heading full steam, into. The valuation I get - including LTYR revenue numbers - comes in at less than the share price value it’s at now, fwiw.
The preceding is the opinion of the author, and not intended to be used to buy or sell any equity or derivatives - or anything else for that matter
submitted by mollytime to TheCannalysts [link] [comments]

Dive Bar Pub Crawl 2018 - Second Six

I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk.
The legal cannabis industry already has a ton of risk in it - but this stuff - is only for thrill seekers. All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell.
I've limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept to most recent financial statements You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I see in their financial statements.
I haven't been consistent in following them all over the past year: some I have, others not.
The first one this year.....is here
LDS - Lifestyle Delivery Systems
Price Then: $0.34 - Price Now: $0.37
Bleh. Still looks like a very expensive front office for a million a year in revenue and 50% margin. Leverage is nose bleed inducing, $26MM in accumulated deficit, and no real end in sight. If I was a shareholder - I’d be all over mgmt. As in: ‘when will a business actually emerge here?’. Still looks like an ATM for mgmt.
RTI - Radient Technologies
Price Then: $1.54 - Price Now: $0.77
Take out the bank balance, the market is valuing the business at about $0.50. For 2 years of stagnant revenue and billowing losses...$7MM last 2 quarters alone...meh. They do look to be operationalizing, perhaps that’s the dev cycle this industry business model is within. If that’s the case, I’m looking to see what happens over the next year - and if the spend justifies the returns.
Investors should be hoping their sales pipeline doesn’t turn into a TransMountain.
TNY - Tinley Beverage Company
Price Then: $0.85 - Price Now: $0.46
Funny enough, Tinley came across the radar a few months ago, and the elves took a stab at it. A couple of fans of this outfit took umbrage with their characterization at the time. They still didn’t put up any math though. Nor referenced the financials.
I was talking with u/GoBlueCdn the other day on the phone, and in conversation, he said: ‘fundamentals will always bear out.’ I couldn’t agree more. The noise and heat and smoke and knees and elbows of the intra-houday/week/month price moves….will always get throat-punched by solid ops. Never a question of it. It’s simply a function of time. The question of whether fanboys (and their accusations) will still be there when night turns to day….is an answerable one. They usually melt like toilet paper put into water. I stick to financials. If they're rocking it, I'll say so. If they're not......same deal.
I haven’t looked at these guys since then. Let’s do it again…..
Ok. I could wax poetic for awhile on this, nothing other than incremental at this point really. I don’t have anything against it. I like the idea of drinkables, but I've never tried one. And….I’m woefully ignorant about emulsions and such. If it’s a good product: I’m there. Probably like most people.
The reality is that these guys have tripped and slipped and reset several times…and aren’t delivering. Maybe I have expectations that are unreasonable (like the one’s they’ve established in the investor decks?).
One way or the other, limping along with no sales will eventually catch up with you. Despite the pitch. Revenues fix almost everything.
Onward:
iAn - Ianthus Capital Holdings
Scratched! Now post merger with MPX - and that I’ve already done that one - means redundancy at this juncture. We’ll skip this, and add a newcomer to the list at the end. Xmas surprise time!
CHV - Canada House Wellness Group Inc
Price Then: $0.37 - Price Now: $0.13
“You are now entering Liquidation City”
Population: CHV
Home of the ‘cash only’ auction. All purchases must be removed by 5PM or goods and purchase price will be forfeited
From doing these guys last year, I recall vividly how much I appreciate good disclosure. With it, there’s not only many more items to divine the entrails of - it also allows one to get a 3D look at an outfit. Often, business dislikes this for obvious reasons (it signals activities/plans/competitive advantages), but also because many people are uncomfortable taking a shower in public.
I took my foot off the throttle though after a certain point with these guys - there’s much more to speak to. All of it negative. I went a little overtime on this one, because I like the idea of a patient-centric Canadian producer. But.
If these guys last a year….there’s going to have to be capital infusion, and Note 10 will probably expand to the size of a large city’s phone book. It’s looking as proof that c-suite changes don’t change underlying business realities. And these guys need major changes, in far more than management.
LIB - Liberty Leaf Holdings
Price Then: $0.48 - Price Now: $0.10
  • not much cash, all they had seems to have gone into ‘facility equipment’.
  • Since they don’t seem to have a facility (on their books anyhow) that makes sense.
  • Appears to have pivoted (the elves always chuckle hearing that word) from aspiring producer, to ‘cannabis business accelerator’.
  • I read this as that they took a couple of runs at getting a grow op up, but got high centred on the meridian of ACMPR licensing delays (Pivot Time!)
  • Note 8 & 9 cover their ‘investing activities’. But it’s mainly transactional. If they’re ‘building value’ for shareholders, odd way to do it using paper on non-operating assets, and no apparent uplift able to be predicted.
  • CEO has gotten some help - he’s gone from ‘Chief Cook & Bottle Washer’ to mainly big chair activities.
  • SBC of a million dwarfs all other income statement spends
  • 60% of assets is their own paper, issued as ‘investment in associate’
  • $26MM of S/E? Please meet $26MM deficit in S/E. LIB’s capital is ostensibly only paper, and more paper.
  • If liquidated on hard assets, company would realize $2MM. I didn't have time to look into unconsolidated subs.
  • The loading of optionality in 2019? Pretty much all struck. Most of management's fruit has been shaken from the tree.
  • Whoop. Spoke too soon. Still 5MM of $0.17 options left to go. Looks like there’s still a lot of fruit up top yet
  • Note 19 is all one needs to read on this thing.
This feels like a squatter-aspiring-to-be-taken-out…..shifted to……business-accelerator-ATM-for-mgmt.
The businesses they’ve invested in could use a lot of accelerating btw, they’ve picked ones that are like cars rusting in a field. The blockchain outfit has shed half its value since listing, and the late stage applicant’s business(es) appear to be suspended in amber.
They’re also connected to some clinical trials, a retail facing outfit, among several others. All paper, all the time.
If there’s a business in here outside of a cashlessly fuelled pitch deck (written on lots of paper), I can’t see it. Perhaps something will happen someday. Nothing has in the last 365 of them. Excepting SBC of course. It's been busy there.
QCC - Quadron Cannatech Corp
Price Then: $0.38 - Price Now: $0.12
  • Cash and inventory and liabilities and S/E relatively flat.
  • A/R shows sales throughput
  • 30% margins. G&A lean. SBC exemplary for industry.
  • SBC might also be low because share price has tanked.
  • Sales needed. Slower industry ramp has slowed industry need for equipment. Should be stronger year if the underlying operational capacity begins to expand, and demand for units cranks.
  • Very clean financials. Not much else to say or see.
This one is dead simple in the financial statements. Love love love.
Whether they’ll start extracting revenue, is solely a function of their sales channel. As I’ve learned over the past year - everybody (and I mean everybody) - is in the extraction space. Operating in this industry sub-sector is like being in a sardine can without any oil (pun intended). Crowded space indeed.
Cashflow is the core of business, and, if QCC can compete and succeed within what is a very competitive landscape - all power to them (and Canadian manufacturing as well). Calling this a ‘challenging environment’ is an understatement. Sales need to begin growing. Another year in the same general state will test market patience, which, is looking like its' already becoming impatient.
Disclaimer - I've met Rosy several times now, and have come to respect her very much. I believe she’s a class act: both professionally, and personally. FWIW, full disclosure.
I’m gonna go have some egg nog with the elves and compliment them on their behavior. They don't start drinking until after 1PM most days now.
That they get out of bed around noon, it's not really saying much. Still, a big improvement over last year.
submitted by mollytime to TheCannalysts [link] [comments]

Dive Bar Pub Crawl 2018 - Third Six

I'm doing a tribute to the 24 days of Christmas by going over the financial statements of 24 companies that are considered downrange, speculative, and just plain high risk.
The legal cannabis industry already has a ton of risk in it - but this stuff - is only for thrill seekers. All opinions are my own, and certainly not a recommendation for or against any of them, or to buy or sell.
I've limited myself to 45mins to each, and kept to most recent financial statements You'll likely know more about the company than me if you're following them. This is only my reactions with a brief commentary about what I see in their financial statements.
I haven't been consistent in following them all over the past year: some I have, others not.
The second one of this year.....is here
CMM - Canabo Medical Inc.
Scratched! Guess there’s another slot open for a Dive in this year’s Crawl! I did take a run at Aleafia’s financials a few weeks ago though. Their ‘merger’ with Emblem hadn’t yet been announced. Alefia ‘Just Said No’ to cultivation by the looks of it. Best choice for them, at least on the face of it.
ISOL - Isodiol International
Price Then: $11.50 Price Now: $1.71
Well then. International operations do attract cost (their G&A is bracing), as does business dev. Especially in Brazil. When a company with a net book value of $2.7MM costs $36MM (takes me back to Canopy buying 2 money losing greenhouses with a net book value of $6MM for $86MM at the time).
ISOL’s still shopping too. Round Mountain looks like ISOL tossed them a life preserver. One will have to trust mgmt as to quality/fit of underlying assets. I didn’t detail, it’s only a half million, they bought it for what looks like working capital, I assume it saved them from insolvency.
A pretty sweeping and broad horizon is presented by these statements - in a company looking internationally. They’ve got a clean professional presence (I’ve seen them at pretty much every trade show I’ve attended), yet, $12MM in op costs per quarter based on $8MM in sales for same….sheesh.
Margin relatively static as well. That needs to improve, and sales need to triple+ to support ops. They lost $6MM per quarter this year, sales modestly up Q over Q.
IMH - Invictus MD
Price Then: $1.40 Price Now: $0.81
Few things here. While I don’t get the warm and fuzzies from this (what the elves are taking these days apparently does give you that & they swear by it), it looks better than it did last year. I have concerns over sales, margins, and the assets in subs. Wrote one off this year. Only 9 months to find out it’s a mutt? Honestly, this company requires far (far) more time to get a handle on. Will do on website. Needs a full once over to be fair.
MDM - Marapharm Ventures (now: LIHT CANNABIS)
Price Then: $0.92 Price Now: $0.17
Sigh. Another that needs more time. Where is Quadron when you need them?
Nothing stand out - at least in terms of company differentiation or size. Boring. And leveraged. The Full Spectrum thingy hits their financials like landing an 8 ft fish in a 7 ft boat. I’d need to deconstruct that ‘asset’ to get any strong utility out of this. I’d really want to have a handle on it - and management - if I was to go anywhere near this outfit. Doesn’t look unfairly priced. Unless you ask the people who placed at $0.865, $0.70, and $0.50 during the year.
Ugliest thing I see is them issuing shares for $0.38 and $0.04 to retire debts, when the share price was $0.80 and $0.40 respectively. If I was one of those in the private placements, I’d be coming out of my shoes on that (Note 14). Even if it was only $40k. Speaks to quiet desperation at one point.
Whether there’s a viable business in here….tune in next time for another episode of ‘Dive Bar Pub Crawl’. As I see it….this would take far too much time for the level of interest I have in it. Unless Full Spectrum is a home run…..
ATT - Abattis Biocuetical Corp.
Price Then: $0.48 Price Now: $0.08
Man, what a difference a year makes. I’ve largely avoided looking over last years’ Crawl as reference, except to skim for major points. This one remains clear in my memory…it looked like a complete mutt then. Only thing they looked good at was producing press releases. They’re still kicking, as is the rate of news releases/month. They have begun paying a formal IR front end, so maybe this will slow down. Or perhaps speed up. Can’t tell. Ah well, latest fins I can find are somewhat old (Sept release. Amended too :( ). New ones should be due pretty quick.
Gonna stop there. I’ve got a stitch in my side, and a headache. If I ever get my hands on the mug who suggested this one….the elves heads are collectively a ‘bag of cats’, and the little buggers staged a walkout. They’re outside singing Woody Guthrie songs and burning pallets. This totally sucks. As does Abattis’ financials.
They offer low friction on tokens perhaps, but any cash put toward this thing will probably have the friction of a canvas bag re-entering the atmosphere. Poof. My personal choice for ‘Dive Bar of the Year’. Curiously, it’s not an easy title to take.
IN - Inmed Pharmacuetical
Price Then: $1.47 Price Now: $0.37
TGIF - Friday Night Inc.
Price Then: $1.20 Price Now: $0.37
I looked at these guys as recently as July. I also met up with them at MJBizCon in Vegas. I asked for a look at their facility….they never did get back to me. I won a laptop bag and some nice swag at the booth on a business card ‘draw’, it didn’t help getting a tour tho. I really wanted to see it…the financials got me curious in last year’s Crawl, and I strongly get the sense I’m missing something of note in them. Seems an incomplete story tbh. Maybe just some mild indigestion.
And….for a region notorious for $70 eights in top shelf, I was also curious why they were recording sub $5 revenue on grams. Got the annuals now….
There’s a reason price softening is lower in this one compared to others - at least they are in production & they have a product suite (at least in their booth at MJBizCon). No retail frontage (?) would explain the shitty sales price. I have somewhat of a soft spot for Canadian business, and I’d hope that relatively early movers would be seeing this start to ramp.
As my trip to the US revealed - the US is a hyper-competitive compartmentalized environment. I do believe vertical integration is requisite for a company with this breadth and spend.
Gonna sit in on the next call on these guys, and try and get a (the) story. Looks like false starts in build out, and challenges ramping. Sales are growing. They don’t look to be peddling a ’take me out’ story or stance…but….I have blind spots on this one.
Because of Abattis, the elves are now wearing balaclavas and carrying home-made gas masks. Told me they are going for a stroll. I gave the RCMP a heads up. Gotta keep up good community relations and all.
submitted by mollytime to TheCannalysts [link] [comments]

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